Главная » 2011 » Май » 11 » Armenia 'to strike at civilian targets' to provoke retaliation
05:41
Armenia 'to strike at civilian targets' to provoke retaliation
News.Az interviews political scientist Rasim Musabeyov, a non-partisan member of parliament.
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said recently that Azerbaijan is protracting resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and that Baku is waiting for the right time to begin a new military game. Why did Armenia make the accusation against Azerbaijan now?
Yerevan is aiming to obtain one part of the occupied lands of Azerbaijan in exchange for the liberation of another part. Serzh Sargsyan cannot say this outright because it would constitute both a blatant and flagrant violation of international law and a call to recognize Armenia’s right to seize the land of other states.
That is why Armenia is beginning to create confusion. Anyway, when Armenia begins to talk that way, no-one listens, and in this case Sargsyan is simply talking nonsense, if he thinks that he can convince anyone.
May the "sniper war” between Azerbaijan and Armenia lead to large-scale military hostilities?
If you look in the archives about the numerous cases of ceasefire violations, skirmishes between the parties and loss of life, we can see that there has always been such a "war" on the front line.
There have been even more dangerous incidents involving the penetration of military intelligence, and, on the other hand, numerous casualties. Therefore, I would not dramatize the situation. However, the fact is that there is no peace and these shootings may lead to large-scale fighting at any time.
I believe the background to the contact line between the troops should serve as a sharp reminder to those countries that the current occupation of Azerbaijani land cannot continue any longer and that unacceptable solutions cannot be imposed on Azerbaijan involving the infringement of its territorial integrity. May third countries engage in a new Karabakh war?
I think that these states will do anything to prevent the conflict reaching a "hot phase" and, if it does, they will do everything to ensure that it remains local and to stop it as soon as possible. Therefore, it is hypothetical that Russia and Turkey will get involved in this conflict. The Armenians are frightened about this as they understand that they will not be able to withstand fairly long military confrontation with Azerbaijan in view of the sharp differences in demographic and economic spheres.
Given that Armenia's transport communication is sufficiently vulnerable, it will even be difficult for them to get arms to the front. In this regard, we can state that Armenia itself plans to play some sort of a game.
Armenia plans to strike at civilian targets and Azerbaijan's oil infrastructure in order to provoke retaliation, and then turn to Russia for help and require compliance with the military agreement between Yerevan and Moscow.
The essence of the prevention of war is to avoid this scenario, but at the same time it is a reality that Azerbaijan has strengthened both economically and militarily and the geopolitical weight of the country has increased against the backdrop of the demographic, economic and military downturn in Armenia.
The US ambassador to Azerbaijan, Matthew Bryza, said recently that the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs were developing new proposals to solve the Karabakh conflict which would include the principles of territorial integrity and self-determination. In what way can these principles be united? Will they preserve Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity?
Bryza said nothing new. Neither of these principles precludes the other. The international principle of self-determination of peoples does not provide for secession from a state. In other words, the right of nations to self-determination does not deny the principle of maintaining territorial integrity.
